Will I Get a Tax Refund If I Make 100k?
Earning $100k doesn't determine your tax refund. The result depends on the balance between the tax you paid throughout the year and your final tax obligation.
Earning a six-figure income does not provide a simple yes or no answer to whether you will receive a tax refund. Your final outcome—a refund or a tax bill—is determined by comparing how much tax you should have paid with how much you actually paid throughout the year.
While many people use the terms “tax return” and “tax refund” interchangeably, they are distinct concepts. A tax return is the set of forms, like Form 1040, that you file with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to report your financial information. A tax refund is the money you get back from the government if you paid more in taxes than your actual obligation, while a tax bill results if you paid less than you owed.
Understanding Your Total Tax Liability
Your total tax liability is the full amount of tax you owe for the year before accounting for any payments. This calculation begins with your gross income, which is then reduced by either a standard deduction or itemized deductions. For the 2025 tax year, the standard deduction for a single individual is $15,000, and for married couples filing jointly, it is $30,000.
A taxpayer would choose to itemize only if their total deductible expenses exceed their standard deduction. Common itemized deductions include mortgage interest on up to $750,000 of home debt, state and local taxes up to a $10,000 limit, and charitable contributions. Medical expenses are also deductible, but only the amount that exceeds 7.5% of your adjusted gross income (AGI). For most people earning $100,000, the standard deduction is the more advantageous choice.
Your filing status is another major factor, as it determines the size of your standard deduction and the tax brackets that apply to your income. A single person with a $100,000 income has a different tax liability than a head of household or a married couple with the same income. The U.S. employs a marginal tax rate system, meaning different portions of your income are taxed at progressively higher rates. For tax year 2025, a single filer’s income is taxed at rates of 10%, 12%, 22%, and 24% as it passes through the brackets, so not all of your $100,000 is taxed at the highest rate.
The Role of Tax Withholding and Payments
For most employees, tax payments are made through federal income tax withholding from each paycheck. When you start a new job, you provide your employer with a Form W-4, which instructs them on how much tax to withhold from your earnings.
The Form W-4 allows you to account for your filing status, number of dependents, and other adjustments for additional income or deductions. An inaccurately completed W-4 is a primary reason for a large tax bill or a significant refund. Withholding too little can lead to an underpayment penalty, while withholding too much gives the government an interest-free loan of your money until you file your return.
Individuals who are self-employed or have substantial non-salary income make estimated tax payments instead of having taxes withheld. These taxpayers calculate their expected tax liability and pay it in four quarterly installments throughout the year using Form 1040-ES. This “pay-as-you-go” system ensures that all income earners, not just employees, are paying their tax liability throughout the year.
How Tax Credits Impact Your Refund
Tax credits are distinct from deductions and reduce your final tax liability on a dollar-for-dollar basis. While a deduction lowers your taxable income, a $1,000 tax credit cuts your tax bill by the full $1,000. This direct reduction makes credits valuable in determining whether you receive a refund.
Credits are categorized as either nonrefundable or refundable. A nonrefundable credit can reduce your tax liability to zero, but you do not receive any leftover amount as a refund. In contrast, a refundable credit can also reduce your tax liability to zero, and any excess credit amount is paid out to you as part of your tax refund. This means you could receive a refund even if you had no tax liability to begin with.
A person earning $100,000 might qualify for several credits. For the 2024 tax year, the Child Tax Credit is worth up to $2,000 per child for single filers with income below $200,000, with a refundable portion of up to $1,700 per child. Another example is the American Opportunity Tax Credit for education expenses, which provides a maximum credit of $2,500 per student. If this credit reduces your tax liability to zero, up to $1,000 can be returned to you as a refund.
Calculating Your Final Refund or Tax Owed
The final calculation is your total tax liability minus your total tax payments and applicable credits. If the result is a positive number, you owe additional tax. If the result is a negative number, you are due a refund.
For example, a single filer with a gross income of $100,000 in 2025 takes the $15,000 standard deduction. This reduces their taxable income to $85,000, resulting in a total tax liability of approximately $13,614.
If their employer withheld $15,000 and they are eligible for a $2,000 nonrefundable tax credit, the calculation is $13,614 (Tax) – ($15,000 (Withholding) + $2,000 (Credit)). This equals -$3,386, meaning the taxpayer would receive a federal tax refund of $3,386.