Is Real Estate in Florida Going Down?
Navigate the complexities of Florida's real estate. Get a clear, data-backed understanding of market movements and future outlook.
Florida’s real estate market is dynamic, influenced by economic forces and regional specifics. This article provides data-driven insights into its current state.
Current Market Trends
Florida’s real estate market is currently adjusting, with varied trends across segments and regions. Single-family home sales statewide increased 2.8% year-over-year in June 2025, the first annual rise since January. However, overall single-family sales were down 2.5% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to last year.
The condominium and townhouse market faced significant challenges. Closed sales for these properties declined over 14% in the second quarter of 2025 and 12% for the first half of the year. Single-family median prices showed modest appreciation in some areas, while statewide median condo prices declined 7.7% year-over-year in June 2025, settling at $300,000.
Inventory levels across Florida have more than doubled since 2022. As of September 2024, single-family home inventory was 4.6 months of supply, and condo/townhouse units reached 7.4 months. This rise indicates a shift from a seller-dominated market. Properties are also taking longer to sell, with the median time to contract in Central Florida increasing to 27 days in March 2025, up from 23 days a year prior.
Influencing Factors
Economic and demographic factors are shaping Florida’s real estate landscape. Elevated interest rates, generally between 6% and 7%, continue to impact affordability and buyer demand. Projections indicate 30-year mortgage rates may decline to 6.3% by year-end 2025, potentially offering some relief to buyers.
Population migration into Florida drives housing demand. The state’s population grew 1.6% annually, exceeding 23 million residents in 2024, sustaining housing needs. New single-family home construction permits declined 11% in the first six months of 2025. However, multifamily unit permits increased 25% during the same period, indicating a shift in development focus.
Florida faces a housing supply gap, requiring an additional 100,000 units to meet demand. This shortage helps prevent a sharp decline in home prices, even with accumulating unsold new construction. Property insurance costs significantly influence homeownership expenses, particularly affecting the condominium sector.
Geographic Market Differences
Florida’s diverse geography leads to varied real estate trends across its regions. South Florida, including Miami, saw single-family median sale prices increase 1.6% to $645,000 (January-June 2025). Condo median prices also rose 8% to $320,000, even as active inventory for single-family homes increased 33% and for condos by 43%.
In Central Florida, including Orlando, single-family median sale prices increased 1.5% to $398,000 in March 2025. Inventory jumped 14.1%, and median time to contract lengthened to 27 days. Orlando’s median home prices have dipped from their peak, with active listings increasing significantly.
Southwest Florida, including Naples, Fort Myers, and Cape Coral, is transitioning into a more buyer-friendly environment. While home values remain strong in desirable locations, many cities in this region have experienced slight declines or a leveling off in median prices. Collier County saw a double-digit decrease year-over-year, and Lee County experienced a 10% decline.
Inventory in Southwest Florida is higher, with Collier County reporting 10.9 months of supply and Lee County 8.4 months in June 2025, indicating a buyer’s market.
The Florida Panhandle market is shifting, with rising inventory and extended days on market, moving towards a more balanced or buyer-friendly state. As of April 2025, median sale prices in key Panhandle towns ranged from $310,000 (Pensacola) to $690,000 (Santa Rosa Beach), with days on market from 68 to 90 days. This regional diversity shows real estate conditions are not uniform statewide.
Understanding Real Estate Metrics
Understanding common real estate metrics is key to interpreting market conditions. The median price is the middle value in a dataset, meaning half of the homes sold for less and half sold for more. This metric is preferred over the average price, which can be skewed by unusually high or low sales. The median provides a more accurate representation of the typical home price.
Sales volume refers to the total dollar amount of properties sold within a timeframe. A high sales volume suggests robust market activity, while a declining volume can signal a slowdown, even if prices remain stable.
Days on Market (DOM) measures the days a property is listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) before an offer is accepted. A lower DOM indicates higher demand and a faster-selling market, favoring sellers. A higher DOM suggests a slower market or an overpriced property.
Months of inventory quantifies the time to sell all current homes at the prevailing sales pace if no new listings were added. It is calculated by dividing total homes for sale by the average sold per month. A balanced market has four to six months of inventory; less than four months indicates a seller’s market, and more than seven months points to a buyer’s market.