Are Housing Prices Going Down in Florida?

Florida’s housing market dynamics are a frequent topic for buyers and homeowners. Understanding the influences on prices and availability is essential. This analysis explores current trends, economic factors, and regional disparities defining the state’s housing environment.

Current Trends in Florida Housing Prices

The Florida housing market has recently experienced moderation, moving away from rapid appreciation. In June 2025, the median home price was approximately $410,300, a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year. This statewide figure indicates a general cooling trend, even though median prices had risen by a significant 46% from 2020 to June 2025.

Sales volume has also declined, with homes sold in Florida down 2.6% year-over-year in June 2025, totaling 32,344 units. Single-family home sales dropped by 7% in February 2025 compared to February 2024, and condominium/townhouse sales decreased by 13% over the same period. This reduction in sales activity suggests a less frenzied market compared to recent peak periods.

Housing inventory in Florida has been increasing. In June 2025, there were 226,600 homes for sale, an 11.8% increase year-over-year. This growing supply contributes to a more balanced market, moving away from a strong seller’s market. Single-family homes reached a 5.3-month supply in February 2025, nearing the typical six-month supply for a balanced market. Homes spent a median of 70 days on the market in June 2025, up 13 days from the prior year.

Key Factors Influencing Florida’s Housing Market

Several interconnected factors exert considerable influence on Florida’s housing market, shaping price movements and buyer behavior.

Changes in mortgage interest rates directly impact affordability. Rising rates increase borrowing costs, leading to higher monthly payments and potentially pricing out buyers. Between 2020 and early 2025, median Florida home prices increased 42%, while interest rates surged 117%, resulting in a 115% increase in average monthly payments. Elevated interest rates can also increase inventory as buyers are priced out, prompting sellers to reduce prices.

Florida’s sustained population growth drives housing demand. The state consistently ranks among the fastest-growing, adding over 300,000 residents in 2023. This influx, fueled by a lack of state income tax, new job opportunities, and a desirable climate, creates persistent demand for properties. This ongoing migration helps to underpin the housing market, preventing a drastic decline in prices despite other headwinds.

Housing availability, or supply, plays a role in market dynamics. While population growth increases demand, new construction and existing home inventory determine how well this demand is met. Florida builds many new homes, but rising material costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions can slow construction. Increased supply helps moderate price growth and creates more buyer opportunities.

Rising property insurance costs burden Florida homeowners and affect market activity. Premiums have surged significantly, with estimates showing a 23.9% increase between mid-2022 and late 2023. This is due to increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, making certain areas more expensive to insure. High insurance costs add to homeownership expenses, potentially reducing affordability and demand, especially in hurricane-prone regions.

Broader economic conditions, such as employment rates and inflation, also influence the housing market. A strong job market and consumer confidence support housing demand. Florida’s expanding job market, with an unemployment rate below the national average, contributes to continued demand. However, inflation and cost of living can impact purchasing power, leading some buyers to be more cautious or priced out.

Regional Differences in Florida’s Housing Market

Florida’s housing market is not uniform, showing regional variations based on local economic conditions, population dynamics, and market characteristics. Major metropolitan and coastal communities often differ from inland or rural regions. These localized nuances mean statewide averages do not always reflect individual market realities.

In South Florida, Miami’s market shows cooling but maintains high prices. In June 2025, the median listing home price in Miami was around $630,000, down 3.8% year-over-year. Miami-Dade County’s median home prices were up 4.4% in June 2025, reaching $575,000. Miami is considered a buyer’s market, with supply often exceeding demand and homes taking longer to sell.

Central Florida, encompassing areas like Orlando and Tampa, presents a mixed picture. In Orlando, median home prices were down slightly by 0.37% year-over-year in June 2025, with a median price of $404,000, though other reports indicate a 2.5% increase in February 2025. The Tampa housing market saw median home prices down 12.7% year-over-year in June 2025, reaching $437,000. Both Orlando and Tampa have seen increased inventory, leading to more options for buyers and longer days on market.

Southwest Florida, including Naples, has experienced varied price movements. In June 2025, Naples home prices were up 55.4% compared to the previous year, with a median price of $1.1 million. Other data suggests a 4% year-over-year decrease in median listing price to $720,000 in June 2025. Naples is a buyer’s market, with homes selling after a longer period and a higher percentage of price drops. This area, reliant on second homes and retirees, can be sensitive to economic shifts and interest rate changes.

North Florida, particularly Jacksonville, shows a clearer trend of price moderation. In June 2025, Jacksonville home prices were down 2.9% compared to last year, with a median price of $301,000. Some reports indicate a 5.4% year-over-year decrease in median listing price in June 2025. Jacksonville has been noted as a major metro area experiencing significant year-over-year price declines. This region is moving towards a balanced market, with inventory levels increasing.